Archive for the tag 'US economy'

ALAN GREENSPAN: “I still believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of recession.”

Chris F. Masse May 27th, 2008

No Gravatar

Via Fortune, the Financial Times

InTrade:

Price for US Economy in Recession (*see contract rules for definition*) at intrade.com

-

Kudos to Caveat Bettor for being prescient on this event derivative market.

-

Sphere: Related Content

No recession?

Chris F. Masse April 30th, 2008

No Gravatar

Price for US Economy in Recession (*see contract rules for definition*) at intrade.com
-

The plunge:

-

Sphere: Related Content

We will never have a perfect model of risk. — by Alan Greenspan

Chris F. Masse March 17th, 2008

No Gravatar

Alan Greenspan:

The most credible explanation of why risk management based on state-of-the-art statistical models can perform so poorly is that the underlying data used to estimate a model’s structure are drawn generally from both periods of euphoria and periods of fear, that is, from regimes with importantly different dynamics.

We will never have a perfect model of risk

-

FOLLOW UP

-

Sphere: Related Content

The US economy is now in recession.

Chris F. Masse March 13th, 2008

No Gravatar

Price for US Economy in Recession (*see contract rules for definition*) at intrade.com

-

Wall Street Journal

Sphere: Related Content