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Tag Archives: Stan Jonas

Implied Probabilities

Via Stan Jonas:

BORING PLUS ONE BET… FEAR OF TIGHTENING BY XMAS OF 2008????
FOMC    Imagined    Euro$    Euro$            Diff    FUNDS
Dates    Prob    Contract   Current  Imagined ticks
04/30/08  -150%    EDM8    97.730    97.726     0    1.88%
06/25/08   -65%    EDU8    97.850    97.834    -2    1.71%
08/05/08    -10%   EDZ8    97.765    97.784     2    1.69%
09/16/08    0%     EDH9    97.720    97.694    -3    1.69%
10/29/08    0%     EDM9    97.510    97.504    -1    1.69%
12/16/08    26%    EDU9    [...]

The latest from the Fed’s prediction market…

Via Stan Jonas:

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Stan Jonas in his own words:

What’s the BET post the March FOMC? The first rule of “betting” is that one must know what the current market odds are. As of today, there is no doubt as to what the “consensus” bet is. Popular press analogies to the Great Depression aside, there is really [...]

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