Tag Archives: Stan Jonas
Implied Probabilities
Via Stan Jonas:
BORING PLUS ONE BET… FEAR OF TIGHTENING BY XMAS OF 2008????
FOMC Imagined Euro$ Euro$ Diff FUNDS
Dates Prob Contract Current Imagined ticks
04/30/08 -150% EDM8 97.730 97.726 0 1.88%
06/25/08 -65% EDU8 97.850 97.834 -2 1.71%
08/05/08 -10% EDZ8 97.765 97.784 2 1.69%
09/16/08 0% EDH9 97.720 97.694 -3 1.69%
10/29/08 0% EDM9 97.510 97.504 -1 1.69%
12/16/08 26% EDU9 [...]
The latest from the Fed’s prediction market…
Via Stan Jonas:
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Stan Jonas in his own words:
What’s the BET post the March FOMC? The first rule of “betting” is that one must know what the current market odds are. As of today, there is no doubt as to what the “consensus” bet is. Popular press analogies to the Great Depression aside, there is really [...]
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