These 2 economists have been vilified in the past, but they are the best read when it comes to the Big Bailout.

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 22:23:13 +0000

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The Best Resources On Prediction Markets

Chris F. Masse — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:08:21 +0000

The Best Resources On Prediction Markets

1. The Best Charts Of Prediction Markets

2008 US Presidential Elections

More Charts:

- Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Current Prediction Markets

- Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Other Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

2. The Best Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

- The Midas Oracle Explainer On Prediction Markets + The Probabilistic Predictions Generated By The Prediction Markets

- The Full List Of The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

3. The Best Internet Sites On Prediction Markets

Prediction Exchanges (a.k.a. Betting Exchanges)

#1. Real-Money Prediction Exchanges

- InTrade

- TradeSports

- HedgeStreet

- Iowa Electronic Markets

- Bet 2 Give

- UBC – Election Stock Market

- TradeFair

- iPredict New Zealand

- MatchBook

- BetFair

- Betdaq

- SpreadFair

- Smarkets

#2. Play-Money Prediction Exchanges

- HudDub

- NewsFutures

- Inkling Markets – CNN Political Market

- Foresight Exchange

- Reality Markets

- Cenimar

- Ask Markets

- YooPick – (a FaceBook application)

- Hollywood Stock Exchange

- Pop Sci Prediction Exchange

- The Sim Exchange

- Media Predict

- InTrade (play money) – InTrade .NET – WSJ Political Market – FT Predict

- TradeSports (play money)

- BetFair (play money)

- Yahoo!’s Yootopia

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

Software For Prediction Markets

- Inkling Markets – (MSR)

- Consensus Point – (CDA & MSR)

- NewsFutures – (CDA + SR)

- Xpree – (MSR)

- Zocalo – (CDA) – (open-source)

- HSX Virtual Markets – (CDA)

- MicroSoft PredictionPoint – (MSR)

- AskMarkets – (MSR)

- QMarkets – (MSR)

- Gexid – (?)

- Nosco – (?)

- ProKons – (?)

- iPredict New Zealand – (CDA)

- Google’s Internal Prediction Exchange – (CDA) – (not licensed)

- Yahoo!’s Internal Prediction Exchange – (DPMM) – (not licensed)

- Trading Technologies International – (CDA) – (not licensed)

- BetFair – TradeFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)

- InTrade – TradeSports – (CDA) – (not licensed)

- HubDub – (MSR) – (not licensed)

- List of the software packages for prediction markets at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the software packages for prediction markets at CFM

- Complete list of the prediction markets consultants at CFM

Books On Prediction Markets

- Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms For Public And Private Decisionmaking – by Michael Abramowicz – 2008

- Winning On Betfair For Dummies – by Alex Gowar and Jack Houghton – 2006

- Information Markets – A New Way Of Making Decisions – (PDF file) – edited by AEI-Brookings’ Bob Hahn and Paul Tetlock – 2006

- The Wisdom Of Crowds – Why The Many Are Smarter Than The Few And How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations – by James Surowiecki – 2004

Research On Prediction Markets

- Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. – (MO mirror soon) – by Forrester – 2008-07-14

- Private Prediction Markets and the Law – (PDF file) – (MO excerpts) – by Tom W. Bell – 2008-05-18

- Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – (MO excerpts) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06

- Using Forecasting Markets to Manage Demand Risk – by Intel Corporation’s Jay W. Hopman – 2007-05-16

- Prediction Markets – (PDF file) – by Eric Zitzewitz and Justin Wolfers – 2005

- More academic papers and scientific articles will be listed here, in the near future.

- Prediction Market Science – (at MO)

- Complete list of academic papers on prediction markets at CFM

- The Journal of Prediction Markets – (JPM)

Conferences On Prediction Markets

- Third Workshop on Prediction Markets @ Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A. – 2008-07-09

- Conference on corporate applications of prediction markets – by Koleman Strumpf – 2007-11-01

- Second workshop on prediction markets – 2007-06-12

- Confab Yahoo! on prediction markets – Streaming Video: 100k – 300k – 2006-12-13

News Articles And Opinion Pieces On Prediction Markets

- How do InTrade’s prediction markets work, and are they really accurate? – by CNBC – 2008-08-25

- Regulation Looms for Prediction Markets. – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is likely to become involved in regulating event futures—and it just may boost these markets. – by BusinessWeek’s Ricky McRoskey – 2008-07-07

- Software taps into the zeitgeist to predict the future. – by CIO New’s Linda Tucci – 2008-05-27

- Prediction Market prices can point to a sure thing. – by Financial Times’ John Authers – 2008-05-17

- BetFair Puts Focus on the Fix in Sports Bets. – by New York Times’ Joe Drape – 2008-05-15

- Prediction Markets: Co-Creating An Organization’s Future – (PDF file) – by Inside Knowledge Magazine’s Victoria Axelrod and Jenny Ambrozek – 2008-05-10

- Foretelling The Future: Online Prediction Markets – (video) – by ABC 20/20’s John Stossel and Maxim Lott – 2008-05-09

- The social utility of the event derivative markets – by professor Vernon Smith – 2008-05-01

- Betting to Improve the Odds – by New York Times’ Steve Lohr – 2008-04-09

- New Understandings in Sports Betting – (PDF file) – by BetFair’s Mark Davies – 2008-04-04

- The Promise Of Prediction Markets – by McKinsey – 2008-04-XX

- Prediction market platform taps the wisdom of employees, partners, customers – by Manufacturing Business Technology’s Karen Dilger – 2008-03-01

- When Markets Beat The Polls – (PDF file) – by Scientific American Magazine’s Gary Stix – 2008-03-XX

- Best Bet for Next President: Prediction Markets – Prediction markets can cut through the clutter of polls and pundits. – by Justin Wolfers in the Wall Street Journal – 2007-12-31

- Mob wisdom means business – So-called ‘crowdsourcing’ lets companies create massive focus groups, garner fresh ideas, and even predict the future. – by InfoWorld’s Lena West – 2007-12-10

- YouBet – The wonders and dangers of online sports wagering. – (page 2) – [BetFair explained to the Americans] – by Slate’s T.D. Thornton – 2007-11-28

- The future of futurology = The prediction markets – by The Economist – 2007-11-xx

- Double or Nothing on the Democrat – [The history of prediction markets] – by The New York Times’ J. David Goodman – 2007-11-04

- Before it’s too late – [enterprise prediction markets] – by Adam Siegel (Inkling Markets CEO) for Forbes – 2007-11-02

- Crowdsourcing The Crystal Ball – by Forbes’s James Surowiecki – 2007-10-15

- Bet on It! – (page two – page three) – by Spectrum’s Steven Cherry – 2007-09-01

- Ask The Market – Companies are leading the way in the use of prediction markets. The public sector may soon follow. – (PDF) – by Region Focus’ Vanessa Sumo – 2007-07-20

- The Science of Success – The New Yorker’s James Surowiecki – 2007-07-09

- When enough people take a stake in the future, it’s like a crystal ball. – Page two. – Republished. – by The Associated Press’ Matt Crenson – 2007-06-23

- The Science Behind PPX – What’s the most accurate way to forecast the future? Simple: make predictions profitable—just like on the PopSci Predictions Exchange. – by Popular Science magazine’s Michael Moyer – 2007-06-15

- Tech lessons learned from the wisdom of crowds – CNET News’s Declan McCullagh – 2006-12-14

- The Election Investors – Political bettors were in force on trading sites, wagering on red or blue. - [WSJ $$$] – by Wall Street Journal’s E.S. Browning – 2006-11-09

- Why Gambling at the Office Pays. – Prediction markets that let workers place bets on business events help HP, GE and other companies make smarter moves. – by Business 2’s Erick Schonfeld – 2006-10-02

- CEO Guide to Technology – Workers, Place Your Bets – More corporations are setting up their own markets for economic forecasts, hoping to tap into the wisdom of employees. – by BusinessWeek’s Rachael King – 2006-08-03

- Business Solutions – How to Decide? Create a Market. – by Wall Street Journal’s Michael Totty – 2006-06-19

- The Future Divined by the Crowd – page two – (mirror) – by The New York Times’ Joe Nocera – 2006-03-11

- Capital Markets – Betting the Ranch on Your Company – While ”prediction markets” offer a venue to wager on the rise of a politician or the fall of a business executive, they might also provide a basis for useful corporate decision-making. – by CFO magazine’s Helen Shaw – 2006-03-06

- Can markets be used to help people make nonmarket decisions? – by Hal Varian – 2003-05-08

Petitions On Prediction Markets

- The Promise of Prediction Markets – (PDF file) – (MO excerpts) – by American Enterprise Institute – 2008-05-xx

Regulations Of Real-Money Prediction Markets

- CFTC’s Concept Release – (PDF file) – (MO excerpts) – 2008-05-XX

Blogs On Prediction Markets

- Midas Oracle .ORG = Prediction Markets For All

- Midas Oracle .NET = Prediction Markets For Enterprises

- Midas Oracle .COM = Prediction Markets For People

- Odd Head – Category: “prediction markets”

- Freakonomics – Category: “prediction markets”

- Overcomig Bias – Category: “prediction markets”

- Marginal Revolution – Category: “prediction markets”

Prediction Market Scholars

- Robin Hanson

Prediction Market Experts

- Chris F. Masse

- Michael Giberson

- Chris Hibbert

- Jason Ruspini

- Emile Servan-Schreiber

Vortals To Prediction Markets

- Links on Prediction Markets – at Midas Oracle

- Chris F. Masse. COM = Vertical portal to Prediction Markets

- IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets

- Social Bookmarks on Prediction Markets – (All Links – Popular Links) – at Delicious

Economics Resources

- IIF’s Principles of Forecasting

- Social Science Research Network – (SSRN)

- National Bureau of Economic Research – (NBER)

- Resources for Economists – (RFE)

Economics Blogs

- Freakonomics

- Marginal Revolution

- Econ Browser

We will never have a perfect model of risk. — by Alan Greenspan

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 20:55:47 +0000

Alan Greenspan:

The most credible explanation of why risk management based on state-of-the-art statistical models can perform so poorly is that the underlying data used to estimate a model’s structure are drawn generally from both periods of euphoria and periods of fear, that is, from regimes with importantly different dynamics.

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The Best Resources On Prediction Markets

We will never have a perfect model of risk. — by Alan Greenspan