The Global Economy | Midas Oracle .NET

ALAN GREENSPAN: “I still believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of recession.”

Chris F. Masse May 27th, 2008

Via Fortune, the Financial Times

InTrade:

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Kudos to Caveat Bettor for being prescient on this event derivative market.

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Tags: Alan Greenspan, InTrade, US economy, US recession

No recession?

Chris F. Masse April 30th, 2008

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The plunge:

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If you have 10 bottles of water, and one bottle had poison in it, and you didn’t know which one, you probably wouldn’t drink out of any of the 10 bottles; that’s basically what we’ve got there.

Chris F. Masse March 29th, 2008

Paul O’Neil, about the subprime mortgage crisis.

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We will never have a perfect model of risk. — by Alan Greenspan

Chris F. Masse March 17th, 2008

Alan Greenspan:

The most credible explanation of why risk management based on state-of-the-art statistical models can perform so poorly is that the underlying data used to estimate a model’s structure are drawn generally from both periods of euphoria and periods of fear, that is, from regimes with importantly different dynamics.